Panama Update Archives
Number 27, July 1999The electoral triumph of Mireya Moscoso, the candidate of Union for Panama, in the May 2 presidential elections, was no surprise for most observers.On the other hand, other elements in the election brought some thankful surprises. First, the maturity of the political parties and their followers, who did not instigate one incident that could tarnish the process. Second, the rapid and professional conduct of the Electoral Tribunal which, only a few hours after the polls closed, announced the unofficial results of the elections. Finally, the acceptance by the losing candidates (Martín Torrijos and Alberto Vallarino) of their loss and the invitation given them by the winner to form a government of "national unity."
Mireya Moscoso's victory can be explained by the thorough rejection by the Panamanian electorate of continuismo, the continuation in power of the governing party represented by the Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) and its candidate Martín Torrijos. The neo-liberal economic policies of President Ernesto Pérez Balladares, applied from 1994 to 1999, proved to be the factor that tore apart Torrijos' campaign. Neither did the other candidate, Alberto Vallarino, who represented the other face of the same economic policy, become a choice for the voters.
Mireya Moscoso achieved an impressive victory with 45 percent of the votes. Martín Torrijos trailed her with 37 percent and Alberto Vallarino with 16 percent. The remaining two percent were blank or spoiled votes.
The 45 percent who favored Moscoso can be approximately divided in 15 percent who are members of the Arnulfista Party and six percent who belong to the allied parties of Union for Panama. She obtained the remaining 24 percent from the masses who rejected continuismo.
In Martín Torrijos' case, the son of the late general was able to replicate the results of the 1994 election that brought Pérez Balladares to the presidency. His 37 percent represent the 33 percent obtained by the PRD in 1994 (and in the August 1998 referendum, which sought to change the Constitution to allow Pérez Balladares to be re-elected), plus another three percent from his electoral allies. Meanwhile, Vallarino's 17 percent reflects part of the MOLIRENA Party (followers of the party's 1994 candidate, Rubén Carles), Christian Democrats and members of the civilista movement which opposed military rule in the 1980s.
Mireya's victory combines with other political factors which will weigh heavily in the next five years. First, the alliance of the popular mayor of Panama City, Mayín Correa, with Vallarino turned out to be a fateful arrangement. Vallarino's failure dragged Mayín, who was the clear favorite for re-election as mayor, to defeat. But Vallarino's defeat save the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), which calculated where it could win seats in the Legislative Assembly. The PDC will probably end up with five or more legislators for the 1999-2004 period.
At the same time, the PRD's unity around the young standard-bearer Torrijos allowed it to consolidate in the Legislative Assembly. It won 27 seats, and its allies won another five, making this block into a serious obstacle to the president-elect's program. The PRD and its allies together with the PDC will have an absolute majority in the Assembly.
The PRD snatched away the powerful mayoralty of Panama City with Juan Navarro's campaign. The young politician received nearly the same percentage as Torrijos (37 percent), but faced with two opponents who divided equally the remainder of votes (31 percent each). Though the old tactic of "divide and you shall rule" did not work for Martín Torrijos, it gave dividends to Navarro.
The Arnulfista Party of Mireya Moscoso will have to make a great effort to build an alliance that gives it the necessary votes in the Assembly to promote its programs. If we look at the experience of the last Arnulfista president, Guillermo Endara (1989-1994) as a precedent, the prognosis for achieving that political agreement is not promising.
Mireya Moscoso promised to introduce an economic policy totally different from the one carried out by President Pérez Balladares and the PRD. Instead of a neo-liberal policy that severely punished workers, teachers, small businesses and the people in general, Mireya promised that she will respect the labor movement's gains. She has also promised to revise the policy that took special retirement benefits away from teachers. And she promised that she would give back protection to agricultural and industrial producers who were victims of the drastic reductions in tariffs during Pérez Balladares' term.
Moscoso proposed the need to develop a policy for the Panama Canal that would prevent its appropriation by the interests of small banking elite. Mireya's 45 percent of the votes cast give her a broad mandate to develop policies that benefit grassroots sectors, through economic policies that promote productivity and Panama's competitiveness in the global market. The only obstacle could be inability of her party members' and the selfish interests of large speculators who belong to political parties, among other places.