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After nearly three years of negotiations, the May 30 deadline set by Washington and Panama for reaching an agreement on a post-1999 military presence came and went, with no deal announced. Now Washington is ready to look for other sites for the military operations it carries out from Panama, according to drug czar and former U.S. Southern Command chief Barry McCaffrey. "We can do the same thing from other places, such as Roosevelt Roads (Puerto Rico), Soto Cano (Honduras), Key West (Florida) or by transit rights in Colombia," he told reporters on June 18.

Some observers believe that continued closed-door meetings between U.S. and Panamanian negotiators signal an agreement that will only be disclosed after the August 30 referendum in Panama on re-election, in order not to alienate key nationalist sectors of the ruling Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD). "The news about the 'failure' of the negotiations are no more than a government maneuver" win nationalists' support, says the National Movement for the Defense of Sovereignty. "Once the reelection referendum is over, the government will renew its attempt to impose a military agreement." The PRD denies it has reached a secret agreement.

Pentagon officials are very nervous about waiting for Panama to roll over its political differences on the matter, since moving facilities from Panama will require time to select sites, contract construction and carry it out before the end of next year. After a meeting of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on May 14, the Pentagon leaked a back-up plan: to pay Panama for more limited "access" to Howard Air Base. Panama's initial response to the back-up plan was to reject it as a "military base."

"That possibility was formally ruled out by the Government more than a year ago," the Foreign Ministry said.

Senator Helms' Agenda

But Senator Jesse Helms and other U.S. conservatives are not going along so easily. Helms convened hearings on June 16 to hear a string of pro-military witnesses. Helms accused Panama of negotiating "in bad faith" with Washington since December, when the two governments reached an "agreement in principle" on a military presence.

Mark Falcoff, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, told lawmakers that the anti-drug center would become "a permanent object of controversy [and] an open sore in Panamanian politics." Senator Christopher Dodd (D-CT) favors the CMA as "an enormous step forward in promoting international cooperation"

The "multilateral counter-drug center," known by its Spanish acronym of CMA, has been on a slide ever since Pérez Balladares said in January that the agreement reached in December is a mamotreto, a Spanish word roughly meaning a "monstrosity."

"We are aware that very few people in the Clinton administration still believe an agreement is possible," a Senate Foreign Affairs Committee staffer said. "And it seems to us that the hour has come to say enough and concentrate our efforts on finding another site for the center."

"The state of Florida is doing everything humanly possible so that they will host the center," another U.S. official said.

Seeing the possibly imminent collapse of the talks, former U.S. negotiator John Negroponte called for continuing negotiations, in his first public statement about the talks since entering retirement last year. "The only decisive deadline to complete these negotiations is December 31, 1999," Negroponte said. "All other dates are the arbitrary products invented by the bureaucracy." (In fact, the Panamanian constitution requires approval of a canal-area agreement by the Legislative Assembly, and by a referendum at least 90 days after the Assembly approves.)

Internal political considerations are not the only reason Panama has not signed a deal, however. The issues still dividing Panama and Washington include: •

The United States wants to be able to launch operations from Howard Air Base that are unrelated to drug trafficking, while Panama wants to limit the U.S. military role (Panama appears unwilling to give in on this issue, since it would provide essential political cover for the continued military presence, both at home and in the region); •

The United States wants an initial agreement for the center of at least 12 years, while Panama has proposed closing the center after three years if drug trafficking diminishes; •

The United States wants its troops to be exclusively under its direct command, while Panama wants authority over the troops to be delegated to the center's leadership; and •

The United States wants the equivalent of diplomatic immunity for its forces in the center, while Panama insists on the right to apply its own laws, especially in cases where a crime has been committed.

A meeting in Caracas between Panamanian Foreign Minister Ricardo Alberto Arias and Madeleine Albright put the ball back in Washington's court. Albright reportedly said she would discuss Panama's proposal with Clinton.

"Irrational and Absurd"

Voices in Panamanian civil society against the military presence also continued to mount. The Catholic church's pastoral council, as well as a youth group from the town of Arraiján, which borders Howard Air Base, denounced the counter-drug center in early June. The pastoral council's Carlos Lee said it is "naive" to think that the United States, which has invaded Panama before, will not use the center for military ends and its own interests.

"The CMA mortgages our future," former Panamanian president Jorge Illueca said in a lengthy analysis of the proposed center, delivered to U.S. Ambassador William Hughes on March 17. Illueca cited a provision in the draft CMA agreement that Panama "will not pass, adopt or enforce any law, regulation or international agreement" which "regulates or interferes" with the CMA agreement or any "related agreement." "This commitment is irrational, absurd, stupid and against the contemporary spirit," Illueca said.

In addition, the Latin American Labor Council joined Panama's Workers Central federation in declaring itself against the CMA, and also called for a ban on foreign military bases in the whole region, as well as a formula for reduced arms sales and military budgets.

President Pérez Balladares says that if the CMA does not come about, Howard Air Base will be used for commercial purposes, and housing on the base will be put on the open market "as we have done with other housing."

Sources: La Prensa, 5/24, 6/4/98; MONADESO Boletín #4, 6/15/98; El Panamá América 4/27, 5/25, 6/4, 6/8, 6/15, 6/19/98; Inside the Pentagon 5/7/98; Miami Herald 6/17/98; Dr. Jorge Illueca, "Los Acuerdos del Centro Multilateral Antidrogas," 3/98.